The outlook for the exchange rate for the Mexican peso looks positive in the most recent Citi Expectations survey, as it is expected to be 19 pesos per dollar at the end of this year, after its level was contemplated at 19.26 units per greenback.
Even 18 participants consider that it could be below said level. For example, XP Investments and Barclays project that it will close the year at 18 pesos per dollar; while, on the contrary, Morgan Stanley forecasts it at up to 20.55 pesos per dollar and Mifel at 19.87 units.
“For the end of 2026, expectations of the peso against the dollar were reduced to 19.50 from 19.87 compared to the previous survey,” he indicated. For next year, the most optimistic participants were BNP Paribas and HSBC, with 18 pesos per dollar, and the most pessimistic about the behavior of the exchange rate were Mifel and Masari Brokerage Housewith projections of 20.64 and 20.60 units, respectively.
What is the inflation forecast?
Another indicator that had changes within the Citi Expectations survey was inflation. In this case, the median projection of the general indicator for the end of 2025 decreased slightly to 3.96 percent, from 3.99 percent previously forecast.
However, for the underlying component it increased to 4.20 percent from 4.12 percent. By the end of 2026, the median overall expectation increased slightly to 3.80 percentfrom 3.79 percent; while the median estimate of core inflation increased to 3.78 percent, from 3.70 percent.
Banxico rate cuts
Notwithstanding these adjustments to inflation forecasts, the 39 participants in the survey expect that the next movement in the monetary policy rate by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will be a cut of 25 basis points at the November meeting.
“The median of the forecasts for the monetary policy rate at the end of 2025 remains at 7.00 percent as in the previous survey. For the end of 2026, the median expectations for the monetary policy rate remained at 6.50 percent since the last survey, with estimates ranging from 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent.
Finally, the median growth estimate for the Mexican economy remained at 0.5 percent, with estimates ranging from -0.1 percent to 1.0 percent. “For 2026, it remained at 1.3 percent compared to the previous survey,” he concluded.
