According to a new study, human life expectancy could be limited to around 200 years, even if advanced anti-aging treatments are developed in the future.

Some Russian scientists tried to understand whether there was a hard limit on human longevity if all the main causes of aging were eliminated, except for changes in the DNA of cells, called somatic mutations.

DNA mutations tend to accumulate throughout life as cells divide or suffer damage from metabolism or exposure to environmental factors, and this important driver of aging is difficult to eliminate.

In the latest study, scientists describe a mathematical model to simulate how different organs deteriorate as somatic mutations accumulate over time.

The researchers simulated an ideal scenario in which other key factors that contribute to aging, such as chronic inflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and the accumulation of aged cells, could be reversed.

“We developed an incremental modeling framework that progressively incorporates factors that contribute to aging into a model of population survival dynamics, which we used to estimate the limits of life expectancy if all hallmarks of aging were eliminated except somatic mutations,” they stated in the study published in the journal NPC Ageing.

The study shows that different organs tend to respond very differently to damage caused by DNA mutations.

The brain and heart are particularly vulnerable, as some of their critical cells are irreplaceable and rarely divide or are replaced after birth.

The liver, on the other hand, constantly replaces senescent and worn-out cells.

When the researchers combined simulations of multiple organs into a single model, they found that humans who experience only mutation-induced aging could achieve an average lifespan of between 146 and 194 years.

“Our results suggest that even if all features of aging except somatic mutations were eliminated, the average human life expectancy would reach between 146 and 194 years, approximately double the current 79 years,” they wrote in the study.

“This roughly twofold difference in mean survival indicates that other features of aging probably contribute at least as much to limiting human lifespan as somatic mutations.”

However, the researchers caution that their findings rely heavily on assumptions about how the organs interact and fail. They point out that the results should be interpreted as theoretical, since the study is not an experimental demonstration.

The findings primarily attempt to establish that DNA mutations will remain the biggest obstacle if future medicine succeeds in eliminating all reversible aspects of aging.

The study further shows to what extent individual aging mechanisms tend to contribute to overall life expectancy.

“Our work represents a critical first step in breaking down aging into quantifiable mechanistic components,” the scientists wrote.

“Ultimately, incorporating other important aging factors could pave the way toward a comprehensive, mechanistic theory of aging.”

Translation of Olivia Gorsin