HOUSTON – The United States assembled its best roster yet for this World Baseball Classic. But his fate will now depend on the squads of Italy and Mexico.

“It’s out of our control,” said U.S. team captain Aaron Judge. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.

After Italy surprise the strong American team with a 8-6 victory ET on Wednesday (watch on Tubi), with multiple qualifying scenarios still in play for the three remaining teams in Group B.

If Italy defeats Mexico, then Italy, at 4-0 in the group stage, will be the winner of Group B, and the US National Team, at 3-1, will be the runner-up. Italy and the United States would advance to the quarterfinals.

But if Mexico defeats Italy, then Mexico, Italy and the United States will all be 3-1. In that situation, Mexico would advance, but a mathematical tiebreaker would be required to determine whether Italy or the United States advance.

The tied teams would be ranked based on runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the three tied teams.

If that also results in a tie, the next tiebreaker is earned runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the three tied teams.

Here are the relevant stats ahead of Wednesday’s games, with the United States having completed all four games:

Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy, there is no situation in which Mexico can win Wednesday’s game without advancing.

Assuming a nine-inning game, the U.S. will advance if Italy allows five or more runs and loses. But Italy will advance if it loses but gives up four runs or less.

An extra-innings game, of course, would alter the math.

No matter what happens, the members of the US National Team will not have a relaxing day off. They will meet at their Houston hotel to watch the clash between Mexico and Italy. And the final score will determine whether they will meet again.