In recent weeks, the quantum computing sector has been the protagonist of one of the most notable episodes of volatility in global technology markets. After an October that aroused the enthusiasm of investors, The shares of quantum companies experienced a dizzying collapse in November.

This situation began to raise doubts about the sustainability of this promising technology and its current commercial reality.

The stock market value of specialized companies such as Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and Quantum Computing registered abrupt declines in the last month, with reductions that exceeded 50%. In particular, Rigetti Computing showed a decrease of 54%, D-Wave Quantum fell 46% and Quantum Computing lost 53% of its value, all after reaching some of its all-time highs in October.

In total, The sector experienced the loss of more than $30 billion in market capitalizationaccording to Perplexity Finance, a firm that stopped to analyze the causes behind this phenomenon.

Many of these companies, which until recently were presented as the next step in quantum technology and computational innovationnow face the difficult task of responding to investors increasingly skeptical about their commercial maturity dates.

The situation worries analysts, not only because of the drastic turn in prices but because some compare the current situation with the famous “dotcom” bubble of the early 21st century. According to Perplexity Finance, “Investors are now facing the fundamental reality: sales multiples of 200 to 900 times, zero profits, mounting losses, and trading profitability that will still take at least 15 to 30 years to achieve.”

In other words, the sector displays valuation figures that, for many specialists, They are not related to the concrete results and the real prospects for technology penetration in the short term.

In the midst of the bearish trend that dominated most firms, IBM briefly burst onto the scene after introducing Quantum Nighthawk, a processor with more than 120 qubits and 218 tunable couplerswhich allows 30% more complex circuits to be executed.

The technical novelty meant a momentary pause in the decline, although on the same trading day IBM shares also fell $342 to $306.

IBM’s launch served as a reminder that the quantum race remains open and active in terms of scientific and engineering advances.. However, even established giants like IBM are not exempt from widespread volatility and market pressures.

Faced with the pessimism of the moment, some institutions and analysts maintain a constructive perspective on the evolution of the quantum market. Bank of America projects that this industry could reach a value of 4 billion dollars in 2030compared to the 300 million calculated for 2024.

Its think tank, led by Wamsi Mohan, highlights that “while the promise of quantum computing is real, there are technological obstacles to its scalability that are currently being addressed.”

Wamsi Mohan adds that “increasing penetration and relatively stable prices are expected during the early stages of adoption. Once the technology is consolidated and standardized, we could see a significant increase in revenues in the sector.”

Despite the difficulties faced in the short term, Analysts attentive to the roadmap of the quantum industry consider that the rapid technical evolution and commercial maturation could converge at some point in the next decade. The dialogue between optimism and skepticism remains very present, even within large technology companies.

A former Google researcher cited by Willy Woo maintains that the firm’s own core developers are “skeptical of quantum computing, but do not have enough knowledge of the field to adequately assess the risks.”